Polar Bears, Sea Ice, and Climate Change
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Why Sea Ice, and Why Polar Bears?
Previous research has shown that climate is the dominant force determining seasonal sea ice conditions in the Beaufort Sea. And since polar bears are dependent on sea ice for their food and life needs, studying sea ice quality and condition over the years — and then determining if heavy versus light sea ice conditions change polar bear distribution or physical condition – can give us another piece of the climate-change puzzle.
According to Dr. Steven C. Amstrup, a research wildlife biologist involved in the study, it's important to study the Arctic and polar bears because they can be harbingers of climate change and its effects. "Something that makes the study of polar bears important is that, in lower latitudes, the early signs of global warming are subtle. The Arctic often magnifies changes due to global warming — for example, where they're seeing very subtle temperature changes in the mid-latitudes, they're seeing huge changes in the Arctic."
George M. Durner, research zoologist and principal researcher on the project, will be analyzing sea ice data produced by the National Ice Center (NIC) in Washington, D.C. The ice charts produced by the NIC provide the research team — which also includes biologist Geoffrey S. York and research wildlife biologist David C. Douglas — with sea ice data that's already interpreted. As Durner explains, "Parameters of ice concentration and ice age or thickness are already in their charts, so we don't have to sit there and look at all these numbers wondering what they mean."
Analyzing data from 1985 through 2008, the team's task will be to look at ice quality and condition from year to year and determine how polar bears respond to the changes in sea ice availability and quality — specifically by looking at polar bear distribution patterns and parameters such as body condition, reproductive rates, and survival rates. The working hypothesis? "We suspect, based on what we know about polar bears, that there should be some correlation between the conditions of the animals and what's happening with sea ice," Durner says. According to Amstrup, "If we continue to see the ice change in the way it has over the last 20 years, at some point we would expect it to negatively impact bears."
Previous research has shown that climate is the dominant force determining seasonal sea ice conditions in the Beaufort Sea. And since polar bears are dependent on sea ice for their food and life needs, studying sea ice quality and condition over the years — and then determining if heavy versus light sea ice conditions change polar bear distribution or physical condition – can give us another piece of the climate-change puzzle.
According to Dr. Steven C. Amstrup, a research wildlife biologist involved in the study, it's important to study the Arctic and polar bears because they can be harbingers of climate change and its effects. "Something that makes the study of polar bears important is that, in lower latitudes, the early signs of global warming are subtle. The Arctic often magnifies changes due to global warming — for example, where they're seeing very subtle temperature changes in the mid-latitudes, they're seeing huge changes in the Arctic."
George M. Durner, research zoologist and principal researcher on the project, will be analyzing sea ice data produced by the National Ice Center (NIC) in Washington, D.C. The ice charts produced by the NIC provide the research team — which also includes biologist Geoffrey S. York and research wildlife biologist David C. Douglas — with sea ice data that's already interpreted. As Durner explains, "Parameters of ice concentration and ice age or thickness are already in their charts, so we don't have to sit there and look at all these numbers wondering what they mean."
Analyzing data from 1985 through 2008, the team's task will be to look at ice quality and condition from year to year and determine how polar bears respond to the changes in sea ice availability and quality — specifically by looking at polar bear distribution patterns and parameters such as body condition, reproductive rates, and survival rates. The working hypothesis? "We suspect, based on what we know about polar bears, that there should be some correlation between the conditions of the animals and what's happening with sea ice," Durner says. According to Amstrup, "If we continue to see the ice change in the way it has over the last 20 years, at some point we would expect it to negatively impact bears."